The Windup: Top candidates for NL MVP (2024)

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Shall we pontificate on the NL MVP race? Plus: a Guardians reliever who knows all about chemistry, the greatest Little Leaguer of all time and the Baseball Card of the Week. I’m Levi Weaver, here with Ken Rosenthal — welcome to The Windup!

Award Watch: Checking in on NL MVP candidates

It’s about time to start talking about MVP races. Full disclosure: I have a vote in the AL race, and discussing my voting process early is frowned upon. Aaron Judge? Bobby Witt Jr.? Everyone please wish me good luck. But for now, let’s take a look at the NL, where there are some interesting debates to be had.

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Here are my top four. I know some fans will (rightly!) be upset that their guy isn’t mentioned. Well, good news: I don’t have a vote in the NL race!

Shohei Ohtani (Dodgers): It was easy to justify voting for Ohtani when the rebuttal to another hitter’s case was a simple: “That’s cool. How many innings did he pitch?” Now, as a DH, Ohtani is leading the NL in both bWAR (6.1) and fWAR (5.8). How? For one, he’s a generational talent at the plate. But he has alsostolen 35 bases—nine more than his previous career high and 13 more than the previous record for a primary DH. A 40/40 season seems almost guaranteed.

Ketel Marte (Diamondbacks): If the Diamondbacks can miraculously edge the Dodgers in the NL West, Marte will be one of thebiggest reasons why. At 6.0 bWAR (5.4 fWAR), he’s inches behind Ohtani, and his 11 defensive runs saved are the fifth-most of any player in the NL.

Elly De La Cruz (Reds): It might come as a surprise to hear that the second-most valuable player in the National League (per fWAR, at least, at 5.7) is a guy who is hitting .263. But De La Cruz does almost everything well — he hits for power, he plays great defense (he’s third inFanGraphs’ “Def” statistic) and of course he runs like few others can.

Francisco Lindor (Mets): Weirdly, another .263 hitter. Lindor is second in Def (13.7) and at 5.6 fWAR, is right there with De La Cruz and Ohtani. In fact, Lindormighthave a slight edge over De La Cruz —at least for now —simply because writers tend to favor team record, all other factors being relatively equal. The Mets are two games out of a playoff spot; the Reds are four games back.

Honorable mention: Marcell Ozuna (Braves): OK,Idon’t think he’s a contender, but Braves manager Brian Snitker said it, so I’lllet you decide. I’d actually say Chris Sale (4.8 fWAR) is more deserving than Ozuna (3.8).

Ken’s Notebook: From pre-med to bullpen weapon

From mylatest notes column:

Not many major leaguers can say they passed organic chemistry in college. Cleveland Guardians rookie right-handerCade Smith, who was a biology major and pre-med at the University of Hawaii, is an exception. Growing up the son of schoolteachers in Abbotsford, BC, Smith thought he might want to become an ophthalmologist. But eventually at Hawaii, he had to make a choice.

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“By the end of my junior year, I was exhausted,” Smith said. “Baseball and school combined were basically consuming all of my time and I thought they were at the point where they were going to start to eat into one another. I didn’t want to do a sub-par job at two things at once. It was time for me to focus on one.”

The Twins took Smith in the 16th round of the 2017 draft, but he opted to go to Hawaii instead. No team chose him in 2020, they year the draft that was shortened to five rounds because of the COVID-19 pandemic. Smith took advantage of the opportunity to interview with multiple clubs, and he chose the Guardians, who are renowned for their pitching development.

Four years later, Smith, 25, has emerged as one of the game’s top relievers, with a 2.02 ERA, 79 strikeouts and 14 walks in 58 innings. His 35.4 strikeout rate and 2.55 expected ERA rank in the top 2 percent of the league. In his last 20 2/3 innings, he has a 0.87 ERA, stranding all seven of his inherited runners.

“I had this mindset from the start that I’m here to learn everything I can,” Smith said. “Coming into pro ball I was 6-5, probably like 210-215 when I got to spring training (he is listed now at 230). I didn’t move particularly well. I was 88 to 90, topping out at 92. And I didn’t have an off-speed pitch.

“They said there was something I liked about my changeup. But they also said there was something really special about my fastball. I knew I was not a finished product. That first year, it was stripping down my mechanics in spring training and laying down a basic foundation. The year after that, it was teaching me how to throw a slider. Then halfway through the year after that, it was adding the splitter and trying to refine that. Through the entire process, I was not going to walk away. I knew I had not reached my potential.”

More here.

History Lesson: The legend of Pinky Deras

Once in a while, a story comes along that makes you wonder, “How have I never heard about this?”

Such is the case withCody Stavenhagen’s story todayon Art “Pinky” Deras,the greatest Little League baseball player in history.

Baseball Card of the Week: 1970 Topps Frank Quilici

It’s pronounced QUILL-iss-ee, and not — as I had guessed — Quill-EE-chee. Quilici was the only man to hold the positions of player, coach, manager and broadcaster with the Twins, the only team he ever played for.

When Sandy Koufax didn’t pitch in Game 1 of the 1965 World Series (it was Yom Kippur), it was Quilici’s second hit of the third inning that knocked Don Drysdale out of the game. Alas, the magic was short-lived — he had just four hits in the series, and the Dodgers won it in seven.

Quilici lost the second-base job to Bernie Allen the next year, and Rod Carew the year after. It was not available again for quite some time after that, so Quilici became a defense-first utility player before embarking on his coaching career.

So why’d I pick this card? Two reasons:

First, that batting glove. That looks like it was designed to be worn at Studio 54, not Metropolitan Stadium.
Secondly, look at that mean mug! By all accounts, Quilici was a pretty nice guy. He did a lot for charity and community outreach after his career, and the Twins’ RBI program plays ona field named after him.

But you wouldn’t know it from looking at this card. That’s as intimidating as a defense-first middle infielder has ever looked.

Handshakes and High Fives

You’ve likely seen the video of the guyrunning through a wallin the minor leagues. That’s Rodney McCray; his kid Grant was called up and hit hisfirst big-league homerfor the Giants yesterday.

Weston Wilsonhit for the cycleas the Phillies trounced the Nats 13-3.

The Mariners trail the Astros by three games after a 2-1 loss to the Tigers. Their path forward requires anawakening of the bats.

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Tyler Kepner’s“Sliders” columnfocuses primarily on Jackson Chourio’s breakout, but includes a tidbit I did not know: Chicago Bears founder George Halas played for the Yankees in 1919.

Christian Yelich has been on the IL since July 24 with a back issue. Today, he’s havingseason-ending back surgery.

In the Wander Franco sexual abuse case, the alleged victim’s father isseeking a dismissalof the charges.

Tim Britton has a fascinating behind-the-scenes look at how the Mets’ marketing team makes the most of aninordinate number of viral moments.

Most-clicked in yesterday’s newsletter:Patrick Mooney’ssit-down with Dansby Swanson, where they chatted about his wife Mallory’s Olympic win with the USWNT.

Most-read MLB story on the website yesterday: Britt Ghiroli and Eno Sarris’ in-depth look athow the Orioles have developed so many good young hitters.

(Top photo: Jeff Hanisch / USA Today)